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Sunday, March 3, 2019

"IT CAN HAPPEN TO YOU..."
- Lyrics from the 1984 single by Yes (Youtube video)

UPDATE AS OF 10:30 AM SUN 3/3

  • WET SNOW to overspread the region through afternoon, becoming heavy after 2 PM with snowfall rates reaching 1"  per hour anytime after 4 PM in many locations north and west of the 95 corridor. 
  • HEAVIEST SNOW expected from 4 PM through 9-10 PM for areas south of the PA turnpike to just west of 95,  then tapering to light snow until midnight. For areas south of 95 to the DC metro area / northern VA and southern MD, rain/snow mixed may briefly turn to snow/sleet toward evening, with 1-2" possible before ending. 
  • MONDAY COMMUTE? With widespread snow cover and a north wind after the system departs, we expect temperatures to remain in the upper 20s to 30 F  through 9 AM, which may lead to refreezing until sun angle can warm exposed surfaces.

  • AREAS SOUTH OF I-70 TO THE BALTIMORE/DC METRO & 95 CORRIDOR, rain changing to snow by evening with 1-4" depending on location & proximity to Chesapeake Bay.

PREVIOUS UPDATES BELOW

STORM TIMING ANALYSIS & PRECIP OPTIONS

  • U.S. GFS-FV3 model depiction for 7 PM Sunday shows moderate to heavy snow in all locations north & west of the 95 corridor
SUNDAY AM to PM: Snow north of I-70 by mid-AM
  • COMPUTER MODELS: The GFS remains more consistent than the European with the colder solution for snow or a snow/mix. Several other models have come into line with the GFS, thus is the preferred projection as noted above.
  • TIMING: Snow should be light for the first few hours, with sun angle reducing accumulation potential on most roads until after 2 PM Sunday.
South of I-70: Preliminary forecast 
  • Morning snow showers are possible for a few areas but light rain/snow is expected to develop by Sunday afternoon. 
  • It could very well become mixed with snow or sleet at times as highs reach the mid to upper 30s, upper 30s to lower 40s south and east. 
  • The lower to mid-30s for our friends in PA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Snow north of 70 & it could happen south
  • FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-70 & west of I-83: Away from Philadelphia, Baltimore, Washington will see heavy snow developing by mid-afternoon. Up to 5" is likely and amounts may exceed 6" before midnight along the PA/MD line.
  • FOR AREAS SOUTH of I-70: the Arctic air tries to push in from the northwest, rain could once again transition over to snow/sleet and freezing rain and begin to accumulate. As the song lyrics go, if cold air works into the region earlier than expected, heavy snow could shift south-- so yes, it could happen to you. 
  • PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL TOTALS: From I-70 south to I-95, 2-4" is possible Sunday evening into early Monday morning. From the 95 corridor south to US-50 in southern Maryland/DC region, 1-3" is possible. 
  • CONSIDERATIONS: A lot will depend on the temperature fall hour-by-hour overnight and also how much precipitation is still feeding into Maryland as the air cools to near-freezing. especially north and west of 95 as many could be traveling through at least a couple inches of snow and perhaps some ice. From this vantage point though, there's still much uncertainty as to precipitation type and potential accumulations.
MONDAY: Clearing by sunrise, refreezing by evening.
  • MORNING: Morning clouds giving way to partly sunny skies wind and cold. NW winds 20-25 mph. Highs in the upper 30s but falling through the day. 
  • IMPACT ON SCHOOLS? Like the lyrics suggest, it's a constant fight, we're pushing the needle to the red. Who knows who's right, so the best we can do is look up, look down, look out and look around. It'll be a crazy world outside...
  • NIGHT: Partly cloudy skies with lows in the upper teens to lower 20s. Mid teens for PA.

 Winter Stormcast Team: 
Lead Forecaster Jeff W., Contributors R. Foot, Ira W., J. McDuffie

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